Chelsea's remarkable journey from a mid-table finish to Premier League champions in just one season is a story that captures the imagination of football enthusiasts. The question now arises: can lightning strike twice? With a new manager, Xabi Alonso, at the helm, Chelsea finds itself in a similar position to a decade ago, and the parallels are intriguing.
A Tale of Tactical Switches and Unbeaten Runs
One of the key factors in Chelsea's previous title win was the tactical shift from a back four to a back three. This change, implemented after a defeat to Arsenal, sparked an incredible 13-game winning streak. A similar tactical switch could be on the cards this season, given Alonso's successful use of a back three with Bayer Leverkusen.
However, the challenge is immense. Chelsea would need to improve their points tally by a staggering 43 points, which is the largest increase ever achieved to win the Premier League. But the bar for championship success has lowered in recent years, with Arsenal's relatively low points total last season suggesting that the title race might be more open.
The Underlying Strength and the X-Factor
Despite their lowly finish last season, Chelsea's underlying statistics paint a different picture. They were the fourth-most dominant team in the Premier League based on expected goals (xG), which suggests they were better than their league position indicated. The issue was their inability to convert chances, with a significant xG underperformance in just a few games.
This raises an interesting question: was it a blip, or a deeper issue? Whatever the reason, Chelsea's new-found focus on European football could provide the team with a much-needed boost.
The Benefits of a Single-Focus Season
The absence of European football can be a blessing in disguise. Historically, 'Big Six' clubs without European commitments have improved their league positions significantly, with an average increase of five places and 16 points. This trend was evident in Chelsea's title-winning season under Conte and Liverpool's near-miss in 2013-14.
Alonso's Track Record and the Blueprint for Success
Xabi Alonso's transformation of Bayer Leverkusen is a blueprint for Chelsea's potential success. Taking over a struggling side, Alonso led them to a sixth-place finish and then, in his first full season, guided them to an unbeaten Bundesliga title. This mirrors Chelsea's own journey, and with a proven manager at the helm, the Blues have a real chance.
Conclusion
While the odds are stacked against Chelsea, the pieces are in place for a remarkable turnaround. With a strong underlying performance, a potential tactical switch, and the benefits of a single-focus season, Chelsea could just pull off another miracle. As they say in football, anything is possible, and this season promises to be an exciting one for the Blues and their fans.
