Olive Oil Price Drop: A European Perspective
The recent decline in olive oil prices across the European Union (EU) has sparked curiosity and concern among producers. After a period of sharp increases, consumer prices dropped by 23% in 2025, according to Eurostat, marking the first decline after four consecutive years of increases. This article explores the reasons behind this price fluctuation and highlights the countries most affected.
A Journey of Rising Prices
The journey of olive oil prices in the EU has been a rollercoaster. In 2021, prices rose by 4.1%, followed by a significant surge of 14.5% in 2022, 34.4% in 2023, and another 32.2% in 2024. These increases were not isolated incidents; year-on-year monthly changes consistently showed olive oil price inflation exceeding 50% from early 2021 onwards. In March 2024, the inflation rate reached a staggering 52.4%.
The Drought's Impact
Mariana Matos, general secretary of Casa do Azeite, the Portuguese Olive Oil Association, attributed the price surge to a combination of factors. She explained that extreme drought in the Mediterranean region, particularly in Spain, during the 2022-2024 seasons, coupled with low stocks, led to a lack of production. This scarcity was the primary driver of the price increases, as the market sought to regulate itself.
Production Decline: A Key Factor
The International Olive Council (IOC) data reveals a sharp decline in EU olive oil production. In the 2022/23 season, production plummeted by 39%, reaching 1.39 million tonnes, down from 2.27 million tonnes in the previous season. While output recovered to 1.55 million tonnes in 2023/24, it remained below average. Provisional figures suggest a slight increase to 2.11 million tonnes in the 2024/25 season, followed by a slight decline in 2025/26.
The IOC highlighted the 2022 summer heatwave's impact on key Mediterranean olive-producing countries, further exacerbating the production crisis.
Country-Specific Price Trends
Among the EU's 35 countries, Spain witnessed the most significant drop in olive oil consumer prices in 2025, with a 38.9% decline. Greece followed with a 29.2% fall, and Portugal experienced a 24% decrease. These three countries stood out as the only ones where prices dropped more than the EU average.
Among the EU's 'Big Four,' France saw the smallest decline, while Italy and Germany experienced more pronounced price drops. In contrast, Albania and Romania recorded the largest price increases.
Turkey's Perspective
It's worth noting that Turkey, not included in Eurostat data, saw a 31% rise in prices for other edible oils, including olive and sunflower oil, between December 2024 and December 2025, according to Turkish statistics.
The Role of Harvest and Energy Costs
Rafael Pico Acevedo, director of the Spanish Olive Oil Exporters Association (ASOLIVA), attributed the price decline to a combination of factors. He explained that consecutive poor harvests, supply shortages, and high energy costs over the previous two years had pushed consumer prices to historically high levels. The significant improvement in production in the 2024/25 season, especially in southern Europe, helped normalize supply and ease these pressures, resulting in pronounced price declines.
Acevedo emphasized that country-specific price variations reflect their position in the value chain. In major producing countries like Spain, Greece, and Portugal, increased product availability is more rapidly reflected in origin prices and subsequently in consumer prices.
Conclusion: A Complex Picture
The olive oil market's price fluctuations are a complex interplay of production, supply, demand, and external factors. While the decline in 2025 provides some relief, it is essential to monitor the market's dynamics to understand the long-term implications for producers and consumers alike.
